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Just 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.