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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.